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CLASSIFICATION: SECRET 
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RUZDFBI/FBI WASHINGTON DC 
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SERIAL: (Uj jivg iousc §424 

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(bH3) 10 USC §424 









BODY 


DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 

INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE. 


COUNTRY: (U) IRAQ (IRQ). 


tbX3> 10 USC §424 




(bull Sec. 1 4 (c),(bX3) 10 USC § 424 


DOI: (U) 20120730. 


M3): 10 USC § 424, (b)(3): 50 USC § 3024(i) 



(bXDSac 1 4 (c) ibXD Sec 1 4(d) 


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A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION. 


B. THE SALAFIST, THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI ARE THE MAJOR FORCES 
DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA. 

C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION; WHILE 

RUSSIA. CHINA. AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME. 

f#1) 8fle i Sac 14 (d) 


E. THE REGIME'S PRIORITY IS TO CONCENTRATE ITS PRESENCE IN AREAS 
ALONG THE COAST (TARTUS, AND LATAKIA); HOWEVER, IT HAS NOT ABANDONED 
HOMS BECAUSE IT CONTROLS THE MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ROUTES IN SYRIA. 
THE REGIME DECR E ASED ITS CONCENTRATION IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI 
BORDERS (AL HASAKA AND DER ZOR). 

3. (€} AL QAEDA - IRAQ (AQI): 


A. AQI IS FAMILIAR WITH SYRIA, AQI TRAINED IN SYRIA AND THEN 
INFILTRATED INTO IRAQ. 


B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH 
IDEOLOGICALLY AND THROUGH THE MEDIA. AQI DECLARED ITS OPPOSITION OF 
ASSAD’S GOVERNMENT BECAUSE IT CONSIDERED IT A SECTARIAN REGIME 
TARGETING SUNNIS. 

C. AQI CONDI JCTF.D A NUMBER OF OPERATIONS IN SEVERAL SYRIAN CITIES 
UNDER THE NAME OF JAISH AL NUSRA (VICTORIOUS ARMY), ONE OF ITS 
AFFILIATES. 


D. AQI, THROUGH THE SPOKESMAN OF THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ (ISI), ABU 
MUHAMMAD AL ADNANI, DECLARED THE SYRIAN REGIME AS THE SPEARHEAD OF 
WHAT HE IS NAMING JIBHA AL RUWAFDH (FOREFRONT OF THE SHIITES) BECAUSE 
OF ITS (THE SYRIAN REGIME) DECLARATION OF WAR ON THE SUNNIS. 
ADDITIONALLY. HE IS CALLING ON THE SUNNIS IN IRAQ, ESPECIALLY THE 
TRIBES IN THE BORDER REGIONS (BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA), TO WAGE WAR 
AGAINST THE SYRIAN REGIME, REGARDING SYRIA AS AN INFIDEL REGIME FOR 
ITS SUPPORT TO THE INFIDEL PARTY HEZBOLLAH, AND OTHER REGIMES HE 


(bK3V 10 


use §424 


CONSIDERS DISSENTERS LIKE IRAN AND IRAQ. 

E. AQI CONSIDERS THE SUNNI ISSUE IN IRAQ TO BE FATEFULLY CONNECTED TO 
THE SUNNI ARABS AND MUSLIMS. 

4. (€) THE BORDERS: 

A. THE BORDERS BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAQ STRETCH APPROXIMATELY 600KM 
WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN CONSISTING OF A VAST DESERT, MOUNTAIN RANGES 
(SINJAR MOUNTAINS), JOINT RIVERS {FLOWING ON BOTH SIDES). AND 
AGRICULTURAL LANDS. 

B. IRAQ DIRECTI. Y NEIGHBORS THE SYRIAN PROVINCES OF HAS AKA AND DER 
ZOR, AS WELL AS (SYRIAN) CITIES ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI BORDER. 

C. THE LAND ON BOTH SIDES BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA IS A VAST DESERT 
PUNCTUATED BY VALLEYS, AND IT LACKS TRANSPORTATION ROUTES, WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL HIGHWAY AND SOME MAJOR CITIES. 

5. (G) THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER: 

A. THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER HAS A SOCIAL-TRIBAL STYLE, 
WHICH IS BOUND BY STRONG TRIBAL AND FAMILIAL MARITAL TIES. 

B. THEIR SECTARIAN AFFILIATION UNITES THE TWO SIDES WHEN EVENTS 
HAPPEN IN THE REGION. 

C. AQI HAD MAJOR POCKETS AND BASES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER TO 
FACILITATE THE FLOW OF MATERIEL AND RECRUITS. 

D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF IRAQ 
DURING THE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE RISE OF THE 
INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL POWERS IN THE REGIONS 
BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATHY) 
APPEARED IN FRIDAY PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO 
SUPPORT THE SUNNI'S IN SYRIA. 

6. (G) THE SITUATION ON THE IRAQI AND SYRIAN BORDER: 

A. THREE BORDER BDES ARE SUFFICIENT TO CONTROL THE BORDERS DURING 
PEACE TIME FOR OBSERVATION DUTIES AND TO PREVENT SMUGGLING AND 
INFILTRATION. 


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C. IN PREVIOUS YEARS A MAJORITY OF AQI FIGHTERS ENTERED IRAQ 
PRIMARILY VIA THE SYRIAN BORDER. 

7. (G) THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS: 

A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HAVE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN TERRITORY. 

„ 14-L-0552/DIA/ 290 

j(bp-lQu3C §424 


B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR: WITH SUPPORT 
FROM RUSSIA, CHINA, AND IRAN, THE REGIME IS CONTROLLING THE AREAS OF 
INFLUENCE ALONG COASTAL TERRITORIES (TARTIJS AND LATAKIA), AND IS 
FIERCELY DEFENDING HOMS, WHICH IS CONSIDERED TIIE PRIMARY 
TRANSPORTATION ROUTE IN SYRIA. ON THE OTHER HAND, OPPOSITION FORCES 
ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), 
ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN 
ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF 
STATES AND TURKEY ARE SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS 
MOST LIKELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH 
WILL HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING, SIMILAR 
TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS CHOSEN AS TIIE COMMAND 
CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT. 


8. (€) THE EFFECTS ON IRAQ: 


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SYRIAN REGIME BORDER FORCES 


RETREATED FROM THE BORDER AND THE OPPOSITION FORCES (SYRIAN FREE 
ARMY) TOOK OVER THE POSTS AND RAISED THEIR FLAG. THE IRAQI BORDER 
GUARD FORCES ARE FACING A BORDER WITH SYRIA THAT IS NOT GUARDED BY 
OFFICIAL ELEMENTS WHICH PRESENTS A DANGEROUS AND SERIOUS THREAT. 


B. THE OPPOSITION FORCES WILL TRY TO USE THE IRAQI TERRITORY AS A 
SAFE HAVEN FOR ITS FORCES TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE SYMPATHY OF THE 
IRAQI BORDER POPULATION, MEANWHILE TRYING TO RECRUIT FIGHTERS AND 
TRAIN THEM ON THE IRAQI SIDE, IN ADDITION TO HARBORING REFUGEES 
(SYRIA). 


C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING 
A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA 
(HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS 
TO THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH 
IS CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHI A EXPANSION (IRAQ AND 
IRAN). 

D. THE DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION HAS DIRE CONSEQUENCES ON THE 
IRAQI SITUATION AND ARE AS FOLLOWS: 

-1 - THIS CREATES THE IDEAL ATMOSPHERE FOR AQI TO RETURN TO ITS OLD 
POCKETS IN MOSUL AND RAMADI, AND WILL PROVIDE A RENEWED MOMENTUM 
UNDER THE PRESUMPTION OF UNIFYING THE JIHAD AMONG SUNNI IRAQ AND 
SYRIA, AND THE REST OF THE SUNNIS IN THE ARAB WORLD AGAINST WHAT IT 
CONSIDERS ONE ENEMY, THE DISSENTERS. ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN 
ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN 
IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING 
IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY. 

Sec 1. 4 (cj P (byi) Sec. 1. 4 (dl 


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(b)(1) Sec. 1 4 (c) 





-3. THE RENEWING FACILITATION OF TERRORIST ELEMENTS FROM ALL OVER 
THE ARAB WORLD ENTERING INTO IRAQI ARENA. 


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(b)(3) 10 U8C g 424 


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